The following is a question asked to Martin Armstrong, author of the Pi Cycle Economic Confidence Model and former chairman of Princeton Economics International. Martin Armstrong is a bona-fide economic genius with a number of amazing predictions having come true to date. His words are definitely worth considering in your own planning.
Will a Downgrade of USA FROM AAA Really Mean Anything?
The hype about Standard & Poor going to downgrade USA credit rating is just not important. Oh the
talking heads will cry the sky is falling. They downgraded Japan in 2002 and nothing took place. Not even their rates increased. The same is likely in the USA and quite frankly, if S&P really thinks they have that much power, they should stop drinking their own bath water.
Downgrades come AFTER the market has already shown its course of action. It is not like the rating agencies actually pontificate and then the markets wake up and say: Oh my God! Ratings follow the market activity and have no power otherwise. The credit rating they gave the CDOs did not convince people to buy them. Once the junk was rated AAA, they were good collateral for the REPO market. That was the key. They rated the junk AAA and that made it good collateral and that was the ONLY reason the stuff sold. Without that rating, the NY boys couldn’t sell anything.
When it comes to sovereign debt of the USA, we are talking about the US$ is the RESERVE currency. About two-thirds of central bank reserves globally is in dollars and the way those dollars are held is in government treasuries. Does anyone really think that if S&P downgrades the USA that its debt will not be sold?
When you deal in REAL money, there is a problem. How do you store it? You can’t just put a billion on deposit at a bank. They will sell it every night and don’t have to tell you. If the REPO market blows up and you go to the bank and say I want my billion, they lost it, and so you turn to FDIC to collect your $100,000. Right! The ONLY way to park serious money is in treasuries. If you have hundreds of billions, now you have the added problem of MARKET SIZE. You can’t just go to any country. Their debt structure cannot provide the ability to park serious money. This is the difference from taking personal economics and applying it to the whole world. It doesn’t work! Don’t worry. Be happy! Until we revise the world monetary system and the dollar is no longer the RESERVE currency, sorry boys, but you are spinning scenarios that scare people, sound good as talking points, but are just gibberish in the real world of serious money. Rates will rise because capital will shift out of bonds into assets not because of the S&P.
Martin Armstrong’s history has shown his mastery at truly understanding the laws of economics. He has predicted many of the pivotal economic events over the past few decades and has developed a highly sophisticated PI-cycle forecasting system, capable of cutting through the bullshit; becoming more aware of what is really going on in the world of economics.
On July 31, 2010 Armstrong published a newsletter issue titled Staring Into the Abyss in which he detailed his latest predictions for our future. I have transcribed this newsletter, from its type-written form, so it will be searchable and more useful to the community.
Staring into the Abyss
Original PDF Version
by Martin A. Armstrong
When all is said and done, no matter how we spin the story, we are in the final stages of the collapse of Western Society as we know it. By that I do not mean the sky will fall and people will be running through the streets naked fighting over 2 week old bread. That did not even happen with the fall of Rome, nor with Communism in China and Russia. It is possible that our political ruling class become so desperate that they take the tyranny path to extort every dime from the people hoping to hold on to fleeting moments of past glories. When it is all said and done, we will ask how was this citadel of the earthly powers of man fallen, and laying motionless and prostrate on the ground before all the great empires that have expired before it. The answer will be the same. Debt and fiscal mismanagement. Our greatest problem has been our arrogance and presumption that we have conquered history and the laws of practical economics do not apply.
When empires die, the clash between private and public assets swings into hyperactive mode. Those who see the Dow crumble and fall to 1400 because that is what happened in 1929, fail to ever understand that such an event took place because of deflation that was created by the fact that the dollar rose to extreme levels when everyone else was defaulting in 1931. This is why Roosevelt confiscated gold and devalued the dollar by raising gold from $20 to $35. Money was still something tangible. Today, we are looking at a massive sovereign debt default on a worldwide level.
Under a situation from the European view in 1931, the only thing to survive was tangible assets. That is not only gold, but shares in corporations with tangible value. velocity is always the key for as it declines due to people hoarding money you get deflation. When people are afraid the money will become worthless (paper or debased coinage) they spend it faster before it depreciates and that creates hyperinflation at the other extreme. It all depends on where the confidence resides – with government or within the private sector. We are headed into the later.
I have been working at full speed to get this book complete. I have passed the 300 page mark and I am deeply in debt to those assisting me from outside to get me the reference material I need to ensure this is more than just an opinion, but also authoritative.
Adam Smith in his Wealth of Nations wrote in his final volume about Public Debt and what he asked was why people had ever considered lending money to government was safe or that their debt was somehow quality. I have been working on this issue in great detail. Smith stated that never had any government ever paid off its debt and that was in 1776. He was correct. I am assembling all the defaults that are a subject that no one seems to want to talk about.
Yet, there are stark and monumental conclusions that emerge from such a long list of defaults. Society does not end as the doomsday crowd portray. This seems to be just their desire or opinion. Many seem to wish disaster upon the world for they feel cheated and did not become rich with the crowd. But those sorts of claims are truly the exception. The fall of Rome ended in disaster as people fled cities and the population of Rome itself fell from 1 million to just 30,000. That was what the Romans called suburbium and why we still today call moving out of the city to the suburbs. The flight took place because of the collapse of the Rule of Law and unprecedented taxation that set in motion a migration that eventually lead to feudalism. Continue reading Martin Armstrong: Staring Into the Abyss