Posts tagged inflation
Judging by the way they are spending money in Washington DC, you’d think these politicians and central bankers are living in a fantasy world. When you give a government the ability to borrow endless sums of money, you tend to get this kind of disconnect from reality.
What the people don’t seem to realize is the fact that money creation is a hidden tax. When they do this reckless kind of spending; it isn’t magically creating new wealth to add to the system. Instead, it is actually stealing from the people who save their money and lowering the standard of living for the middle/lower class.
The Federal Government is overrun by thieving, self-serving scoundrels who pass ridiculously expensive, unrealistic and unconstitutional legislation. They stand up in front of the population, with a straight face, and tell them the new programs are actually going to save them money; however, history shows that these kinds of claims are rarely true. In fact, government programs usually cost many multiples of the amounts estimated by government bean counters.
The populace of this country is now dominated by left-wing socialists, who fail to understand the economic trouble we are in. All you need to do, in order to spend us further into the ground, is throw the plethos a few crumbs. In the case of “health care reform,” they gave pre-existing condition reform and a few other reforms which were sought by a fair chunk of the population. There is no doubt that reform was needed; but this reform further destabilizes both the health care system and even more pivotally, the economy.
There is a very strong chance that we will have hyperinflation in the United States of America sooner rather than later.
Healthcare Bill to Cause U.S. Hyperinflation By 2015
FORT LEE, N.J., March 20 /PRNewswire/ — The National Inflation Association – http://inflation.us – today issued a warning to all Americans of a potential outbreak of hyperinflation in the U.S. by year 2015 caused primarily by the healthcare bill and rising interest payments on our national debt.
Medicare was created in 1966 at a cost of $3 billion per year and the House Ways and Means Committee estimated in 1966 that in 1990 the cost of Medicare would reach $12 billion per year. Instead, the actual cost of Medicare in 1990 was $107 billion (792% more than what was projected) and today Medicare costs $408 billion annually. In 2003, the White House Office of Management and Budget estimated that the Iraq War would have a total cost of $50 to $60 billion. So far, we have already spent $713 billion on the Iraq War (over 1,000% more than what was projected).
The Congressional Budget Office is estimating that the healthcare bill will cost $940 billion over the next 10 years, but if history is any indication, the actual cost will likely be several trillion dollars. NIA believes the healthcare bill will be the final nail in the coffin of the U.S. economy and will just about guarantee that we will see hyperinflation by the year 2015.
The U.S. government last week reported a record monthly budget deficit for February 2010 of $220.9 billion. Total tax receipts for the month were only $107.5 billion compared to outlays of $328.4 billion. The total U.S. deficit for the first five months of fiscal year 2010 was $651.6 billion, with tax receipts of $800.5 billion and outlays of $1.45 trillion. The deficit was up 10.5% for the first five months of fiscal year 2010 over the same period in fiscal year 2009.
We are now at a point where if the U.S. government taxed Americans 100% of their income, the tax receipts generated would not be enough to balance the budget. Likewise, if the U.S. government cut 100% of its spending including defense, but kept paying Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, we would still have a budget deficit. NIA believes it will be impossible for the U.S. to have a balanced budget ever again.
The U.S. national debt is now $12.67 trillion of which $8.061 trillion is public debt. Due to the Federal Reserve’s artificially low interest rates of 0% to 0.25%, interest payments on our national debt last month were only $16.9 billion, an interest rate of only 2.548% on our public debt. The reason for the spread between our 2.548% interest rate on the public debt and the federal funds rate of 0 to 0.25% is that a portion of our national debt is made up of long-term bonds at higher interest rates.
Our debt ceiling was recently raised to $14.3 trillion, which we are on track to reach in less than a year, sending our public debt up to about $10 trillion. If the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate up to just 2% during the next year, NIA believes the interest rate on our public debt could rise to 5% and our annual interest payments will likely rise to $500 million or 23% of projected 2010 tax receipts of $2.165 trillion.
The White House is not projecting for interest payments on the national debt to break the $500 million mark until fiscal year 2014. By then, even if we go by White House projections that the deficit will be cut to $828 billion in 2012, $727 billion in 2013 and $706 billion in 2014, in 2014 we will still be looking at a national debt of over $18.5 trillion with a public portion of around $13.14 trillion. We find it shocking that the White House is projecting an interest rate on our public debt in 2014 of only around 4%.
All of this means that the While House expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates at artificially low levels almost indefinitely. However, we know it will be impossible for them to do so without creating a huge outbreak of inflation in the prices of food, energy, clothing, and just about everything else Americans need to live and survive. In order to prevent hyperinflation, we need interest rates to be higher than the rate of inflation.
NIA believes the real rate of U.S. inflation to already be approximately 5%. If the Federal Reserve doesn’t raise the federal funds rate to above 5% in the short-term, in our opinion, an outbreak of double-digit inflation is inevitable. By 2014, it is possible the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise the federal funds rate up to above 10% and the public portion of our national debt could exceed $15 trillion. Therefore, in 2014 we could see the interest payments on our national debt reach $1.5 trillion, about triple what is currently being projected and 43% of the government’s projected tax receipts that year of $3.455 trillion.
Besides the cost of the healthcare bill and rising interest payments on our national debt, another major catalyst for hyperinflation will be social security payments, which adjust to the CPI-index. As the government’s CPI-index rises, so will the social security payments that it owes. This could cause a death-spiral in the U.S. dollar. Inflation is still the last thing on the minds of most Americans, but soon it will be their primary concern.
To receive NIA’s latest updates about inflation and the economy, sign-up for the free NIA newsletter at: http://inflation.us
The National Inflation Association is an organization that is dedicated to preparing Americans for hyperinflation. The NIA offers free membership at http://www.inflation.us and provides its members with articles about the economy and inflation, news stories, important charts not shown by the mainstream media; YouTube videos featuring Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, and others; and profiles of gold, silver, and agriculture companies that we believe could prosper in an inflationary environment.
Contact: Gerard Adams, 1-888-99-NIA US (1888-996-4287), email@example.com
SOURCE National Inflation Association
Food inflation as we have mentioned is here to stay. Corn prices may be peaking as the Mississippi river crests, but we see higher prices for other substitutable grains. A decline in food prices could happen temporarily in the autumn if the U.S. Government and others end set their aside programs and other countries start to develop underdeveloped farmland. This will not lead to a large increase in food production worldwide initially but in the long term production will rise.
The problem is that consumption is also rising at a rapid rate. While worldwide production will not go up by a huge amount, the main effect will be psychological. As people come to the conclusion that supplies may increase, speculators will exit positions. Over the longer term, global food stocks will be rebuilt as they are way too low. This rebuilding of inventories will keep prices firm.
As we have mentioned in the past, global food inventories have fallen in 7 of the last 8 years. These inventories must be rebuilt for many years before prices can really start to fall. The fact is, global food prices are lower in inflation adjusted dollars than they were decades ago. Even in the most optimistic case, inflation adjusted corn, wheat, soybeans, and other foods must rise for years to come just to get back to their inflation adjusted prices of 50 years ago.
An aside…developed country consumers spend less of their budget on food compared to consumers in other countries. We believe that this will change. Consumers in developed countries will be spending more of their total income on food as well. (more…)
The situation was already out of control to begin with. Now it is SEVERELY spiraling out of control. Whenever the counter-parties of these transactions fails to pay, it means the FED has to print up more money to bail them out. If they aren’t bailed out, then the whole charade crumbles to the ground, taking the rest of us with it as the economy swirls down the toilet bowl.
This is a situation that has no reasonable solution except, imo, to scale down these derivative positions. They are going to have to be made illegal, but the people that have them already have to be grandfathered in so that the system doesn’t collapse.
Total Notional Value Of Derivatives Outstanding Surpasses One Quadrillion
The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION.
This appears to be Bank of International Settlement Spin to announce the largest gain in derivatives outstanding since they started to report. As of the last report it appeared that both listed and OTC derivatives was under $600 trillion. Now listed credit derivatives alone stood at $548 Trillion. The OTC derivatives are shown as $596 billion notional value, as of December 2007. One can only imagine what number they are at now.
Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion. (more…)