Golden Comet Now Seen By The World: $1650 Target In Sight

As I write to you this evening, the very real prospect of hyper-inflation, a catastrophic currency event, is staring down the vast world of US dollar-denominated paper promissory notes. Gold is behaving like a bright comet in the sky, grabbing the attention of the keen observer and giving them an edge over others who are too distracted to look up.

The confidence model is rapidly crumbling, after many years of neglect; the US dollar bubble is finally bursting in an awesome way. If there were genuine integrity, then surely such a model would do; but the lack of sufficient moral fortitude in the hearts of men, makes it virtually impossible to have a confidence based economy for very long; because the confidence is merely an illusion and the model can only be sustained as long as the illusion persists.

On the daily chart, we see panic buying (and short covering) driving the price of gold to well above $1200 dollars. Major central banks, such as the Indian central bank, have become large-scale buyers of Gold.

It looks like my original medium-term target of $1379 is going to be upon us relatively soon. Our next target may soon be followed by a touch of the inflation-adjusted high of $1650, followed by a period of consolidation.

Gold Daily Chart: December 21, 2008 - December 2, 2009

The picture becomes clearer if we look at the inflation-adjusted monthly chart, showing the gold price action clear back to 1970. Considering official inflation statistics, we can see that gold has yet to move past its previous high, despite a vast expansion in monetary aggregates, which has occurred during the past several decades.

Gold Monthly: 1970 - 2009: $1650 Price Objective

Nobody can say for sure what will happen with the short-term fluctuations. But longer-term it is quite clear that the price of gold will move into the $5,000 range, as the reality of the need for hard assets sets in. It doesn’t take but a few billion dollars worth of gold purchases to create a significant increase in the gold price. Given all of the trillions of dollars already in circulation and the trillions planned for bailouts; the target of $5,000 will likely turn out to be a conservative target, once the dust has all cleared.