Thoughts on the Gold Chart and Economics

Gold has made some significant progress in the battle to top the historic $1,000 USD mark.  In the chart below, which covers the past two years, we see the following:
  • Bounded by the gray trend lines: an Expanding Corrective Wave which was broken to the up-side, the upper bound of this formation was then re-tested confirming the breakout.
  • Bounded by the red trend lines: a Wedge formation which was broken to the upside last week.
  • Denoted by the purple trend line: an Inverse Head & Shoulders formation with the current price hovering close to the neck-line.
  • Denoted by the red trend lines in the MACD indicator (below): a Wedge formation which was broken to the up-side.
  • Last week gold had a historic close.  In fact it was the highest weekly close ever for gold; leaving it above the psychologically significant $1,000 mark after a weekly close for the first time in history.
As of September 25, gold has broken through two long-term formations and sits at the neckline of an inverse head & shoulders formation.
As of September 25, gold has broken through two long-term formations and sits at the neckline of an inverse head & shoulders formation.

Given that gold closed the week at the neckline of such a long-term Head & Shoulders formation, after having shown such resilience over the past few weeks, it is time we prepare ourselves for a significant move, further into unknown territory. The chart above indicates that gold is acting like a coiled spring, ready for the slightest trigger, to send it into launch mode; bringing the price into the $1200-1300 USD range.

When I look at this chart, I am reminded of the 2002-2003 period, when gold was hovering around the $375 range in a large wedge formation. At the time everyone was thinking, “this must be it for gold, it’s already had such a run from $250, the bull run surely must be over by now.”

I remember seeing the wedges, similar to the current chart, though less volatile than the current price fluctuations. I remember seeing a good-sized wedge in the MACD which had broken to the upside. In fact, it was at this time that Jim Sinclair, the CEO of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration and the author of Jim Sinclair’s Mine Set had a contest for gold community members to draw the relevant trend lines on an Investors Business Daily gold chart that he provided. The prize for this contest was a one ounce gold coin.

Well, I took Jim up on his offer and drew formations similar to those on the attached chart. Including a MACD breakout precisely like the one on the current chart. I made the chart simple yet elegant and intuitive and fortunately for me; out of all of the hundreds of charts sent in to his fax, he chose mine as the winner. What a great feeling that was and what an appreciation I gained for the power that each of us has to understand what is going on in the economic world with elegant simplicity not endless complexity.

It was even more rewarding to see gold advance to $450 by late 2004 and then $700 by 2006. What you have to realize, when you are studying these charts, is the fact that the underlying forces which propel gold skyward have not changed. The governments and central banks of the world continue to employ their disastrously flawed Keynesian economic models which create welfare, warfare and ultimately massive inflation.

Politicians love having all of the “free” money, hot off the printing press, to buy votes, line the pockets of their associates and bail out their friends. That is why these leftist notions of a nanny state taking care of us from cradle to grave, often embraced by Republicans and Democrats alike, is not going to solve the problems it was intended to solve.

This is because everything has a cost, yes even the nanny state, corporate welfare and the like. As the price of the yellow metal rises the buying power of the savings of billions of individuals decreases; so they are in effect robbed in broad daylight by the Keynesian inflationary policies. Is it any wonder that the standard of living continues to decline all over the western world.

“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” –Einstein

One of these days, it may dawn upon people, en mass; that in general the government doesn’t solve problems, it only creates problems. So the only way to truly solve problems is by strictly limiting the role of government to that of a referee and letting the free market bring about the solutions we need.

Had the free market been allowed to act upon zombie banks years ago, when the problems first arose; these banks would have never become “too big to fail.” Had the free markets been allowed to act, unhindered, in the health care field, we would have more choices and less people unable to get the help they need.

Unfortunately, with the public school educated populace; the first place they turn whenever their is a problem is the government. So we have the Hegelian dialectic, “(problem) oh goodness, what a dreadful problem! — (reaction) what are they going to do about it? — (solution) the policies that were originally sought, but did not find the political support are now widely supported and then implemented without much opposition.”

It really saddens me to see my countrymen repeating this cycle over and over again, unaware and uncaring of the fact that it makes their lives much more difficult and constrained. I often wonder when it will become apparent to them that all of this nonsense isn’t working. Will it be when gold is at 3,000? 5,000? 10,000?

I can’t say for sure when decisive action will be taken; but if history is any indicator, inevitably there will come a point at which the pull of the massively centralized state on people’s lives distorts the culture of these people to such an extent that they decide they’ve had enough of it. This would be the point where they realize that it costs so much more to live in a massive welfare state than the benefits that are derived from it and the productive individuals either demand real change, or they pull up anchor and head for some place which will suit their needs.

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