The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

May 03, 2009 | SeekingAlpha.com

Since the economy began sliding downhill in late 2007, mainstream economic and market experts have consistently erred on the sunny side.

As late as June 2008, mainstream consensus held that the U.S. was heading for a “soft landing” and would avoid recession. Several months later, the slump was acknowledged to have started in January 2008, but we were supposed to see renewed growth by mid-2009, with unemployment peaking in the eight-to-nine percent range. A quick “shovel-ready” stimulus bag was supposed to set us back on the road to prosperity.

In January, recovery projections were pushed forward to late 2009. Today, the consensus is for a mid-2010 recovery, with unemployment peaking at just over 10 percent. Clearly, the mainstream has struggled to catch up to reality for well over one year. What are the chances that they finally have it right this time?

Moreover, the mainstream continues to see what is going on as a plain-vanilla recession that will be quelled with some on-the-fly monetary and fiscal tinkering. Washington, we are told, will pull us out of this slump—as soon as the masses can be enticed back to the shopping malls. Then things will return to how they were before. But what if the experts and politicians are wrong not only on their ever-changing recovery timeline, but also on the nature—nay, the very existence—of a recovery?

America’s reigning political-economic ideology has demonstrably failed. Given that its government is obviously fumbling along without a clue, its foreign and domestic credit is tapped out, and its 300 million people are discovering that their hopes for continuous material improvement will never be met, could the U.S. be headed the way of the USSR?

Instead of a recovery as the mainstream envisions it, what if America permanently bankrupts, impoverishes, and marginalizes itself? What if its cherished institutions fail across the board? For example, what happens when the police realize that their under-funded pension plans cannot support a decent retirement? Will they stay honest, or will they opt to survive by any means necessary? These are questions that the mainstream does not even begin to contemplate. Continue reading The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Open Letter to Congressman Griffith (D-AL) Regarding HR 875

Congressman Griffith,

I am writing to voice my opposition for HR 875, the Food Safety Modernization Act of 2009.

This bill unnecessarily encumbers small to medium sized farms with excessive regulatory demands, which may even put many community farms out of business.

The Federal Government is already too involved in agriculture.  We need to allow the free market to work, in order to serve us best.

Putting smaller community farms out of business with unnecessary legislation will not make our food supply any safer.  In fact it will make it more dangerous, because consumers will be even further separated from the source of their food.

If a farm is producing unsafe food, then let the legal system take care of them.  The farmers can be liable for the penalties that are already in place under existing laws; no new bureaucracy is necessary.

I hope you will consider this when voting on this bill.

Regards,
Chris Case