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completed or are ongoing in the Columbia River Basin. Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. Although not as extreme as A1FI, the high-end A2 scenario was archived by most GCMs and could have been used in the CBCCSP in place of the A1B scenario. Model calibration and validation used a split sample approach in which calibration was performed for each of the 11 primary watersheds over a 15-year period (typically water years 19751989) and model validation was performed over a separate 15-year period (typically water years 19601974). 2013a. The MOCOM-UA tool uses an objective function (defined by the user) and a shuffle complex evolution procedure to optimize model calibration parameters to create a set of Pareto (equally) optimal calibration parameters. Interactive influences of climate change and agriculture on aquatic habitat in a Pacific Northwestern watershed, PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, River Bed Elevation Variability Reflects Sediment Supply, Rather Than Peak Flows, in the Uplands of Washington State, Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? If neither naturalized nor modified flow is available, no bias-adjusted data were provided. Columbia Basin Care is the region's only independent nonprofit skilled nursing facility for long-term care and short-term rehabilitation. Most of the fundamental details regarding the VIC implementation used in this study are covered by Elsner et al. Changes in PET (PET3, see Table 2) and AET (see Table 2) are shown in Fig. Future work on the project will likely focus on expanding the number of streamflow sites for which products are available (e.g., inclusion of additional sites in coastal Oregon in the site-specific products) and providing a comprehensive suite of products associated with CMIP5 results (Taylor, Stouffer, & Meehl, Citation2012) associated with IPCC AR5. 2012. The VIC model has been widely applied in climate change studies at both the regional scale (e.g., Christensen & Lettenmaier, Citation2007; Lettenmaier, Wood, Palmer, Wood, & Stakhiv, Citation1999; Maurer, Citation2007; Maurer & Duffy, Citation2005; Payne et al., Citation2004; Van Rheenen, Wood, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004) and global scale (e.g., Adam, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009; Nijssen, O'Donnell, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2001). 7). Blue traces show monthly averages for historical conditions; the pink bands show the range of projected change associated with each scenario and future time period; the red lines show the average of the future ensemble. To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below: Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content? West-wide studies to support USFS and USFWS needs (including current efforts to include California) will have a budget of less than half this amount, a level of efficiency that would not have been achievable without the CBCCSP pilot effort. In addition, some observed streamflow data are suitable for use as natural data if the effects of storage and diversions are relatively small (e.g., for the USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network streamflow sites). Broad changes in shallow groundwater (e.g., localized contributions to streamflow from smaller unconfined aquifers), however, are likely well captured by the VIC model based on a strong correlation between VIC-simulated base flows and observations in many basins examined by Wenger et al. Naturalized streamflow data were used exclusively in the CBCCSP to calibrate the hydrologic model. The largest changes in flood risk are simulated in mixed-rain-and-snow basins. The PRISM data for Canada were interpolated to 30 arc-second resolution data from a 2.5 arc-minute (approximately 4km) product and were statistically adjusted to remove the bias associated with the different time period (19611990 means for the 4km product). Source: Source: Bonneville Power Administration. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. (*Modified flows are essentially naturalized flows with a consistent level of consumptive demand for water supply subtracted for the entire time series.). For example, to support academic or agency researchers with their own hydrologic modelling capability, the study provides projections of meteorological drivers such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and humidity and a calibrated VIC hydrologic model implementation. The approach and methods are more fully described in the study report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a, Chapter 3) and also by Elsner et al. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). The same procedure is followed for estimating extreme low flows, except the lowest 7-day flow is extracted for each water year, and 7Q10 (the extreme 7-day low flow with a return interval of 10 years) is estimated. The climate of the high mountain regionsthe pramos, ranging from about 10,000 to 15,000 feet (3,000 to 4,600 metres)is characterized by average temperatures below 50 F (10 C), fog, overcast skies, frequent winds, and light rain or drizzle. These spatial variations in the change in AET are broadly reflective of the dominant drivers of AET in each case. In 2021, these livestock operations alone accounted for 75% of deforestation on public lands, according to a study by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM).. The six panels display results from the combination of three time periods (rows) and two emissions scenarios (columns) used in the HD downscaling process. This is likely because soil moisture is higher in summer west of the Cascade Range and evapotranspiration is mostly energy limited, whereas east of the mountains the late summer soil moisture is already very low in the current climate and increasing evapotranspiration does not result in much additional soil moisture stress. It reaches a thickness estimated at 16,000 feet in places. Based on these substantial differences in hydrologic impacts it is difficult to escape the conclusion that management of water resources in the Canadian portions of the basin will play a crucial role in the ability of US water managers to adapt to more substantial changes in streamflow timing and summer low flows in the United States. Lee. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. The methods are discussed in more detail in these references, but a brief description of the procedure is given here to help orient the reader. Get the forecast for today, tonight & tomorrow's weather for Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso, Brazil. In the first five years (19952000) of operation, the research efforts of CIG were primarily directed towards the assessment of the impacts of interannual and interdecadal climate variability associated with ENSO (Battisti & Sarachik, Citation1995; Trenberth, Citation1997) and the PDO (Gershunov & Barnett, Citation1998; Mantua, Hare, Zhang, Wallace, & Francis, Citation1997). Because both these effects increase flood risk in the simulations, the effects are unusually large in these basins (Fig. Les simulations dcoulements de crue et dtiage augmentent en intensit pour la plupart des sites fluviaux compris dans cette tude. Columbia River Basin Impacts Assessment, PN Region - usbr.gov It was also well understood by practitioners at CIG that aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem researchers, managers, and stakeholders needed a similar, but more comprehensive, data resource to support long-term planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies at the landscape scale. The two time periods also represent very different patterns of decadal climate variability in the historical record, providing a useful test in the context of simulating a changing climate. 135 0 obj <>stream (2005). The scope of work for the project called for hydrologic modellers at CIG to produce the following results: A suite of up-to-date hydrologic projections for the entire CRB (including portions of the basin in Canada) based on the CMIP3/AR4 (Meehl et al., Citation2007) GCM projections. Using the VIC model, Mote, Hamlet, Clark, and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), Mote, Hamlet, and Salath (Citation2008), for example, showed excellent reproduction of observed trends in 1 April SWE over both the PNW as a whole and over the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Lows in the lower 50s. The CBCCSP also included fine-scale hydrologic modelling using DHSVM (Wigmosta et al., Citation1994, Citation2002) in four pilot watersheds in the PNW. Although results could potentially vary in different areas of the model domain, these results support the hypothesis that only modest improvements in validation statistics would result from individual calibration of additional streamflow sites within each sub-basin. Yakima River Basin Study The site at Corra Linn Dam on the Kootenay River is representative of changing hydrographs in many locations in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia. However, our goal in this case was not to reduce the range of uncertainty by selecting a smaller group of GCMs. Figure 4 shows a flow chart of these post-processing steps. It is important to acknowledge that opinions differ on the utility or even possibility of improving ensembles of future projections based on the ability to simulate the past climate (e.g., Gleckler, Taylor, & Doutriaux, Citation2008). Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. Even with substantial cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, scientists expect our climate to continue changing over the coming decades. The study employs a state-of-the-art, end-to-end data processing sequence that moves from raw GCM output to a set of final hydrological products that can be accessed by the user community from a web-accessible database. Clima em Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso - weather.com Les rsultats de ltude montrent de profonds changements dans l'accumulation de neige au printemps et des dplacements radicaux de neige ou pluie et neige mles vers principalement pluie dans presque tout le domaine. These techniques remove systematic biases in the simulations of routed streamflow to produce products that closely match the long-term statistics of a natural or modified flow dataset for a particular site. 8). Figure 1. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios, Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study, Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. 6. Demand factored into Columbia River Basin's future - WSU Insider Les principaux produits de ltude comprennent des donnes sommaires pour environ 300 sites fluviaux dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et des produits mensuels de Systme d'information gographique pour 21 variables hydrologiques couvrant tout le domaine ltude. USFWS (US Fish & Wildlife Service). (unpublished manuscript). Here we will review a few important aspects of the basic implementation to help orient the reader and will then focus most of our attention on the additional implementation and calibration tasks carried out during the CBCCSP. What Does Climate Change Mean for Flooding in the Columbia River Basin Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. The process was also significantly improved by researchers at PCIC who reconfigured and optimized the code to run more efficiently on a Linux cluster (Schnorbus, Bennett, Werner, & Berland, Citation2011). As noted above, the study also supports planning efforts over a wide range of geographic scales. Subsetted from the, Averaged periodic drought condition ranking by basin for 2015-2020 from the, Mapped extent of wildfires from 1950-2020 from, Air quality monitoring stations within the study area. (2011). Application Process How to Apply Sign-up for Program Updates The MRB encompasses 24 terrestrial ecosystems, providing habitat for 100 species of mammals, reptiles, and amphibians Its floodplain supports 40% of the waterfowl and wading birds in North America, and the MRB's . Although results from the WACCIA would arguably have been adequate to support WDOE's adaptation planning, the CBCCSP provided additional foundation support for these efforts, and helped improve confidence in the outcomes of the adaptation strategies identified by better quantifying a range of outcomes. Additional streamflow sites were routed from the primary VIC data, and water temperature simulations for a number of additional sites were based on temperature projections from the study. For the CD and HD downscaling methods, which construct a 91-year time series for both historical and future time periods, three future time periods were selected: 2020s (20102039), 2040s (20302059), and 2080s (20702099). Lee. 7-Day Zone Forecast for Upper Columbia Basin (Text-Only) Saturday Night And Sunday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Temperature and precipitation vary greatly with elevation, but in the central basin January average daily temperatures are between about 25 and 30 F (4 and 1 C), and July averages are mostly between 70 and 75 F (21 and 24 C). This approach was partly based on practical limitations on time and computational resources but was also informed by previous experience using the VIC model at finer spatial scales. The interested reader is directed to the CBCCSP report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a, Chapter 6) for a detailed discussion of methods and results. Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin, Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling. Wind speed data are based on interpolated NCEP reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., Citation1996) using methods described by Elsner et al. Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Impacts of 21st-century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Uniqueness is also evident by looking at the Columbia River Basin. Explore the basics of climate science arrow . Source: NOAA Fisheries. Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data, British Columbia Ministry of Environment (Canada), Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation, Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Composite Delta statistical downscaling method, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Two)Supported the IPCC TAR, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Three)Supported the IPCC AR4, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Five)Supports the IPCC AR5, A water resources simulation model for the CRB developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (, A crop system simulation model developed by Stckle et al. Depending on their needs and/or level of technical sophistication, users can tap into the study databases at a number of different levels. Simulated widespread increases in soil moisture recharge in fall and winter in areas with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate) support hypotheses of increased landslide risk and sediment transport in winter in the future. Retrieved from, CIG (Climate Impacts Group). hb```"V* aB@{= ,!It#GjWeyP1% The NSE scores for about 20 sites are marginal (between 0.3 and 0.7). Flooding in the Columbia River basin expected to increase under climate Nakienovi, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., De Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S.,Dadi, Z. The Columbia River basin will see an increase in flooding over the next 50 years as a result of climate change, new modeling from Oregon State University indicates. Daily and monthly streamflow for each streamflow site are provided in two formats: a) raw VIC simulations, and b) bias-adjusted simulations. Hydrology and water resources research at CIG was particularly focused on the use of experimental climate and hydrologic forecasts for the CRB (Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999a, Citation2000; Lettenmaier & Hamlet, Citation2003; Leung, Hamlet, Lettenmaier, & Kumar, Citation1999) in the context of decision support for various water management applications (Hamlet, Huppert, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2011; Voisin et al., Citation2006). Additional products such as bias-adjusted inflow sequences for specific reservoir operations models are also included. In most basins with substantial snowpack, elevated soil moisture in winter accompanies warming in the simulations resulting from more infiltration from rain in the fall and winter months (Fig. Rain dominant basins (DJF temperatures greater than 2C) show moderate increases in flood risk (primarily reflecting increasing storm intensity in the simulations), whereas snowmelt-dominant basins that currently flood in June show relatively little change in flood risk. A detailed climate change assessment report was prepared by the CIG for Seattle City Light (Snover et al., Citation2010) based primarily on the CBCCSP database. This choice was imposed by WDOE. (Citation2010) over the entire PNW (Tohver et al. Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower, Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State, Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals, Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River basin, Long-range climate forecasting and its use for water management in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America, Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S, Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S, Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western U.S, An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature, Optimized flood control in the Columbia River basin for a global warming scenario, Methodology for developing flood rule curves conditioned on El Nio-Southern Oscillation classification, Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario, Improving water resources system performance through long-range climate forecasts: The Pacific Northwest experience (Chapter 7), Water resources implications of global warming, a U.S. regional perspective, Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin, A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. The Climate of the Columbia Plateau in Washington State To minimize this data processing artifact, boundaries between months were smoothed while keeping the sum of daily streamflows equal to the original monthly values in the final product. To produce the bias-adjusted flows, a bias correction procedure using quantile mapping techniques is applied (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Snover et al., Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). For the BCSD runs (for which the ability to capture key elements of the region's climate variability is arguably even more important to the outcomes) the projections based on the seven highest ranked GCMs (Table 1) were selected for each emissions scenario. Weather for Monday, Feb. 27 | Columbia Basin Herald Retrieved from, Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin. The Red Devils dropped the first game of the double-header 11-3 in five innings before . Nestled in the sunny climate of The Dalles, Oregon just 1.5 hours east of Portland Columbia Basin Care offers around-the-clock medical care, private and semi-private rooms, fresh and nutritious . (1 April SWE and SWE2PR values were calculated using the CD VIC scenarios.). The largest increases in flooding are in mixed-rain-and-snow basins whose mid-winter temperatures are presently within a few degrees of freezing. A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). A set of simpler, lumped-storage reservoir operations models was used to quantify impacts in a number of smaller water supply systems. RSUM[Traduit par la rdaction] Le projet de scnarios de changement climatique du bassin du Columbia (CBCCSP) a t conu comme une base de donnes hydrologiques complte pour appuyer les activits de planification, dvaluation des rpercussions et d'adaptation dans la rgion pacifique nordouest menes par une communaut d'utilisateurs diversifie disposant de capacits techniques varies dans une large gamme dchelles spatiales. Other impacts, such as changes in soil moisture dynamics are also apparent in the simulations. Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. The CBCCSP provided climate change projections of meteorological drivers and a calibrated VIC implementation in support of the study.

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